Message:18311 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 05 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <8345_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260305/2129Z 28687@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260305/2128Z 46205@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260305/2126Z 63348@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260305/2125Z 55152@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260305/0032Z 8345@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels, with a marked decrease in
flaring compared to the previous period. Flaring was limited to isolated
C- and B-class flares. The C-class flares were produced by Region 4384
(N09E40, Eho/beta) and the plage of decayed Region 4380 (S21, L=205).
X-ray background flux subsided below the C-level. Region 4378
(N16W15, Cso/beta) gained a companion pore just south of its leader
spot. The trailing spots of Region 4381 (N08E16, Cao/beta) decayed
throughout the period, including loss of penumbra. Region 4384 remains
the largest group on the disk, but exhibited further simplification as
its intermediate spots dissipated and its primary trailing spot
decreased in size. A new region 4385 (S08E31, Bxo/beta) emerged in the
southeast as a stable but unremarkable collection of small pores. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 07 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak
of 541 pfu observed at 04/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is to remain at moderate levels
05-06 Mar before reaching high levels on 07 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 07 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak enhancements, potentially
associated with glancing influence from a positive polarity coronal hole
high-speed
stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed was slightly elevated and ranged from
400 to 470 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) trended slightly downward
throughout the period, averaging 6 nT. The North-South (Bz) component
exhibited several southward deviations with a maximum southward
deflection of -6 nT early in the reporting period. The Phi angle was
primarily in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to return to a more
nominal, ambient regime on 05 Mar. A more significant enhancement is
expected 06-07 Mar with the anticipated onset of a stronger negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 05 Mar
as lingering enhancements subside. G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 06
Mar due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (-CH HSS), with active conditions expected 07 Mar as
high-speed stream influences continue.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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