Message:18137 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 01 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <8170_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4380 (S21E42, Dao/beta)
produced a C6.1 flare at 01/0206 UTC, the strongest of the period, as
well as several other C-class lfares. Region 4381 (N07E69, Dao/beta)
continued to produce the majority of the C-flare activity this period,
adding a C5.2 flare at 01/0615 UTC and several C3 and C4 flares. Region
4381 experienced slight growth, mainly in its trailer spots. Region 4380
exhibited slight decay in its leading spots, but grew slightly in
overall size and magnetic complexity. Region 4378 (N16E31, Eho/beta)
lost some of its trailer spots, but remained the largest, most
magnetically complex group on the visible disk. Region 4379 (S17, L=204)
decayed to plage.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 03 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
7,143 pfu observed at 28/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
01-03 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 03 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Solar wind
speeds trended downward towards end of period speeds near 410 km/s,
total magnetic field remained near 4 nT, and the Bz component was mostly
negative, but varied between +/-4 nT. The Phi angle remained in a
negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind conditions are likely through 03 Mar due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb, followed
by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
early in the period. An increase to unsettled to active levels is
likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, on 01
Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb, followed by the
onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences on 02 Mar. Mostly unsettled
levels are expected on 03 Mar under ongoing positive polarity CH HSS
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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