Message:18100 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 28 Feb 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <8122_N4SD>
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FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2026
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02
00-03UT 1.67 3.33 3.33
03-06UT 2.67 4.33 3.67
06-09UT 1.67 4.00 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.67 2.67 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.67 3.00
18-21UT 3.00 3.00 3.33
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 3.00
Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods
on 01-02 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb,
followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) through
02 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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