Message:18086 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 28 Feb 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <8097_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period
was a C3.5 flare at 27/1259 UTC from new Region 4381 (N08E77,
Hax/alpha). There are currently four numbered regions on the visible
disk. Region 4380 (S20E60, Dao/beta-gamma) remained magnetically complex
with mixed polarities in its intermediate area. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 02 Mar, with a
chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the day, with a peak of 11,800 pfu at 27/1535 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels on 28 Feb before returning to normal to moderate levels on 01
Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 01 Mar.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected persistent, yet weakening influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds decreased from just under 550 km/s to begin the period to end the
period around 430 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged near 4 nT,
the Bz component was variable between +/- 4 nT, and the Phi angle
remained predominantly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely late on 28 Feb through 02 Mar
due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb,
followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels through 28 Mar. Active conditions are expected on 01-02 Mar, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb, followed by the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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