Message:18246 In: NEWS.USA
From: N3MELDate: Wed, 04 Mar 26 03:02:00 Z
Newsgroups: NEWS.USA
Subject: //The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026//
Message-ID: <12712_N3MEL>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL
R:260304/0302Z 28638@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260304/0302Z 12712@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
The Wire - March 3, 2026
//The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERSIAN GULF.
SAUDI FORCES DEPLOY TO QUELL RIOTS IN BAHRAIN. MAJOR OIL FACILITIES SHUT
DOWN THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST DUE TO STRIKES. ISRAEL LAUNCHES GROUND
INVASION OF LEBANON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The Gulf War continues as Iranian forces begin shifting to
strategic targets. Most of the drone/missile attacks overnight targeted
oil production facilities, such as the Fujairah Industrial Zone in the
UAE, which has been taken offline. Otherwise, the attacks on American
installations continue, with the American Embassy in Riyadh being hit
multiple times by drones overnight.
Bahrain: Significant riots have broken out around the country, as the
majority-Shia population begins expressing dissent with the Sunni
government, and more specifically the American presence within the
nation. Saudi Forces crossed the bridge this morning with anti-riot
forces to help quell the more kinetic protests, which have become
intense over the past 24 hours.
Analyst Comment: Politics in Bahrain were complicated before the war, as
the population is mostly Shia (and aligned with the Ayatollah), but the
country is ruled by a Kingdom that is Sunni. Even before the shooting
started the situation was tenuous at best, and the assassination of the
Ayatollah might have been the spark needed to kick off a civil conflict
within the island nation. This is a complicating factor for the United
States, as Bahrain has long served as a major Center of Gravity for
American combat power in the region. Now that some locals are getting
rowdy (and are also aligned with Iran), this will make things more
difficult.
Lebanon: This morning Israeli forces launched a ground invasion in the
south, opening up another front so as to seize terrain along the border.
Lebanese Army forces have withdrawn from the border as Israeli units
advance.
Analyst Comment: It is not clear as to if this is a legitimate,
full-scale ground invasion, or limited border incursions that Israel is
known to do throughout southern Lebanon. So far, Israeli forces haven't
crossed their limit of advance set during the height of the conflict two
years ago.
United Kingdom: A stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh, which
resulted in a standoff lasting several hours yesterday afternoon. One
unidentified assailant began stabbing people an apartment building,
which resulted in two people being wounded. After the attack, the
suspect fled into the apartment building, which resulted in a standoff
situation that lasted seven hours. Eventually, police were able to
breach the building and detain the suspect.
Separately, in Birmingham a different stabbing attack was captured on
film this morning, which involved an assailant stabbing a man on the
street outside a Catholic school in Alum Rock. This attacker was
arrested at the scene, and very few details remain public regarding his
identity.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Yesterday afternoon the US State Department published
the list of nations that Americans should evacuate from, which includes
the entire Middle East. The "depart now" order has been issued for the
nations of: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the UAE, and Yemen.
However, the US State Department has stated that Americans are on their
own regarding evacuations. Even though the start of this combat
operation was easily predicted down to the exact day (and nearly the
exact hour) that it began, the United States somehow believes that they
needed to maintain the element of surprise. The State Department
believed that if they made attempts to evacuate the Middle East before
the attack, the world would know that the war was imminent. This is also
why many American bases appear to not be fortified as much as they could
have been. In many cases, the Pentagon appears to not understand that
their operation was very observable to the public, and their attempts to
maintain the secrecy that they thought they had, resulted in little
preparation in some areas.
False sense of operational security aside, what this means at the moment
is logistical challenges because everyone is having to sit tight for the
moment until the war calms down enough to make evacuation flights
reliable. A handful of flights have been able to make it in and out of
Dubai, despite heavy GPS jamming efforts in the region. The governments
of Britain and Poland are tentatively looking to start
militarily-organized evacuation flights throughout the region over the
next few days, however details are not yet solidified regarding these
efforts. Italy has already conducted the military evacuation of some of
their citizens from the region, who arrived back in Italy this morning.
So far, the official policy of the US State Department is that US
Citizens are on their own, and not a single evacuation flight of
Americans has yet taken place to evacuate American citizens from the region.
Right now, it might not seem like much, but time is in fact running out.
Every single western-aligned Arab nation in the region is running out of
interceptor missiles, with some nations reporting that they have burned
through many years worth of their supply in just the past two days. Just
this morning alone, the UAE blew through 172 interceptor missiles to
take out 172 Iranian munitions that would have otherwise impacted
targets inside their country.
While it is unconfirmed hearsay at the moment, the rumor throughout the
region is that the US has declined to restock these supplies, as most
stockpiles of interceptor missiles have been allocated for Israel. As a
result, this war is now a marathon to see who has more missiles, the
Iranians or the other Persian Gulf states. At the moment, hundreds of
drones and missiles are being intercepted out over the Gulf every
day...the viral videos of drones slamming into targets on land are
merely the munitions that have made it through missile defenses, which
is a drop in the bucket compared to the true number of drones and
missiles that are being launched. This has lead many to the false
assumption that this war will fade away within a few days, because they
can't visually see the interceptions that are taking place out over the
water. However, it's now Day Four of this conflict, and the drone
attacks have remained constant. When/if missile interceptors dwindle,
these munitions will have nothing stopping them from reaching their targets.
Last night, President Trump stated that American stockpiles of munitions
are at adequate levels, and that "Wars can be fought 'forever'" at
current stockpile levels of medium-grade munitions. Despite the rather
unfortunate choice of vocabulary in this post, the cold hard truth is
that the US has not been supplying the Arab nations that are now getting
hit, with the munitions necessary for their defense, or more
importantly, the defense of American assets (and citizens) in the
region. This will complicate the self-evacuation of Americans over the
next few weeks, in addition to sharply increasing the potential for more
widespread drone strikes over the next few days.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//
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