Message:22937 In: WX.USA
From: KF5JRVDate: Sat, 23 May 26 08:47:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.USA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - May 23
Message-ID: <25906_KF5JRV>
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R:260523/0909Z 31582@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260523/0908z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:25906_KF5JRV
R:260523/0907z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:25906_KF5JRV
R:260523/0907Z 51850@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0847Z 25906@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 12Z Sat May 23 2026 - 12Z Mon May 25 2026
..Wet, stormy, and unsettled weather continues for much of the
eastern half of the U.S. through Memorial Day weekend...
..Increasing heavy rainfall and flash flood potential across much
of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana the next couple of days...
..Broad upper-level ridging to keep the West unseasonably warm
and mainly dry into early next week...
Low pressure systems interacting with increasing moisture along a
slow-moving frontal boundary will set the stage for a wet and
stormy holiday weekend across much of the eastern half of the
country. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in store
from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley to the
Mid-South, Southeast, and Ohio Valley the next couple of days,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours when instability
along and south of the front is highest. While a widespread
outbreak of severe weather is not expected, a few clusters of
storms may become locally strong to severe. Should that occur,
damaging winds and hail would be the main threats. With plenty of
moisture to work with, storms will be capable of producing heavy
rain as well. As a result, a few isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding can't be ruled out, especially where
soils are already saturated from prior rainfall. North of the
boundary, a strong bubble of high pressure positioned over eastern
Canada will wedge southward up against the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians, resulting in continued unseasonably cool, damp, and
cloudy conditions across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Overrunning moisture over top of this wedge of damp and cool air
will lead to waves of soaking rainfall Saturday into Sunday.
Warmer air does try to advance northward into the Mid-Atlantic
later Sunday into Memorial Day on Monday, but with the risk of
additional showers and thunderstorms.
Aside from the more localized concerns for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across parts of the eastern half of the U.S. this
weekend, an increasing semi-regional threat will begin to take
shape across much of eastern Texas and southern Louisiana this
afternoon and evening. A series of upper level impulses ejecting
out of northern Mexico combined with highly anomalous moisture
surging northward from the Gulf will support the development and
maintenance of numerous robust clusters of showers and
thunderstorms along and north of the Gulf Coast. These storms will
be capable of producing intense downpours with rainfall rates
exceeding 2"/hr at times. Given already saturated soil from
previous rainfall and the potential for storm clusters to
repeatedly track over the same areas, the threat of excessive
rainfall and flash flooding is increasing. A higher end Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall remains in place, though a
future upgrade to a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is possible
depending on observational trends and the latest model guidance. A
similar threat is in store on Sunday as additional clusters of
drenching storms ignite and intensify across parts of eastern
Texas and southern Louisiana during the peak heating hours of the
afternoon.
In stark contrast to the wet and unsettled weather across the
East, the Western U.S. will stay unseasonably warm and mainly dry
through the holiday weekend as broad upper-level ridging remains
anchored in place. A few isolated showers may flare up over the
higher terrain of the Rockies and Sierra, but that would be more
of an exception rather than the rule. High temperatures will
continue to run several degrees above normal, peaking in the 70s
and 80s for most. The hottest temperatures will stay confined to
the desert valleys of California, Nevada, and Arizona where highs
will soar well into the 90s and 100s through Sunday.
Miller
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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