Message:22636 In: WX.USA
From: KF5JRVDate: Tue, 19 May 26 08:25:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.USA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - May 19
Message-ID: <25705_KF5JRV>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|NS2B|KF5JRV
R:260520/2124Z 31389@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260519/0831z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:25705_KF5JRV
R:260519/0831Z 51531@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260519/0825Z 25705@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026
Valid 12Z Tue May 19 2026 - 12Z Thu May 21 2026
..Severe weather and flash flooding threats across east-central
Plains to Midwest this morning will shift south into the Southern
Plains and Ohio Valley later today into tonight...
..An early-season heatwave will challenge temperature records
across the eastern U.S. through Wednesday...
As a main piece of the upper-level trough ejects out of the
central Rockies into the central Plains today, a slow-moving
frontal boundary across the midsection of the country will begin
to move farther to the south and east. This will allow the wet
snow to end across the central Rockies, while the severe
thunderstorms across east-central Plains this morning will shift
farther south into the southern Plains later today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will extend
farther northeast across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and
into the lower Great Lakes through tonight. The greatest threat
of flash flooding associated with these thunderstorms are forecast
to be across central to eastern Texas as well as the Midwest/Ohio
Valley through tonight.
Meanwhile, an early-season heatwave is in full swing across the
eastern U.S. A Bermuda High anchored over the western Atlantic
will continue to bring a long fetch of warm southerly flow across
the eastern half of the country, with high temperatures reaching
into the mid-90s during the next couple of days. These
temperatures will challenge or break temperature records across
the east-central U.S. including the Mid-Atlantic, spreading into
New England this afternoon. Widespread moderate to major HeatRisk
is forecast for major cities across the I-95 corridor and into
upstate New York today. In contrast, Frost and Freeze related
Advisories/Warnings are in place into this morning across the
northern/central Plains and into portions of the nearby Rockies
behind the late-season snowfall.
By Wednesday into Thursday morning, the cold front will make
further eastward progress through New England but will begin to
stall along the trailing end across Texas. Cooler temperatures
behind the front will bring relief to the heat progressively
through the eastern U.S. on Wednesday into Thursday morning, along
with the arrival of scattered showers and some embedded
thunderstorms. Meanwhile, thunderstorm and heavy rain chances
will nudge farther into western Texas later on Wednesday into
Thursday morning as the front becomes stationary.
Meanwhile, remaining upper troughing in the West will bring some
light high-elevation snow and lower-elevation showers and storms
to Colorado through the next couple of days. Showers and some
embedded thunderstorms will be developing and expanding across
Montana Wednesday night with the arrival of an upper trough from
western Canada. Florida could see slight increase in thunderstorm
chances as a disturbance edges closer toward the Bahamas. The
West Coast will remain dry apart from some showers moving onshore
into Washington state.
Kong
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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