Message:21901 In: WX.USA
From: KF5JRVDate: Tue, 05 May 26 09:15:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.USA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - May 05
Message-ID: <25146_KF5JRV>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|WG3K|WW6Q|W9GM|WG0A|N5MDT|W0ARP|KF5JRV
R:260508/1449Z 30915@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260505/0919Z 50583@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260505/0917Z 33517@WG3K.#SMD.MD.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260505/0917Z 52246@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260505/0916Z 58883@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260505/0916Z 37229@WG0A.#MSP.MN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260505/0916Z 17695@N5MDT.#STX.TX.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.25
R:260505/0915Z 38665@W0ARP.#NCO.CO.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260505/0915Z 25146@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Tue May 05 2026
Valid 12Z Tue May 05 2026 - 12Z Thu May 07 2026
..Significant winter weather set to continue in the Rockies
through midweek...
..Severe weather and heavy rain to impact the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley through midweek, before approaching the
Southeast..
..Chilly temperatures will persist across the Central and Eastern
U.S. after the frontal d
Wyoming, where there is over a 90œhance of at least minor winter
weather impacts and a medium chance (40-60éof major impacts, per
the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P). The bulk
of snowfall and travel-related impacts are expected to occur
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Accumulations of 1 to 2 feet of snow
are expected across the northern mountains and foothills. This
will result in significant travel impacts, damaged tree limbs from
heavy snow, and localized power outages. As a result, Winter Storm
Warnings and Advisories are in effect until Wednesday afternoon.
Elsewhere, a strong cold front will continue moving through the
Central Plains, reaching the Southern Plains and Southeast by the
middle of the week. A potent upper-level cutoff low in the
Southwest will amalgamate with a broader upper-level trough
encompassing much of the Plains and Midwest. As a result,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout much
of the country. Beginning this morning, showers and thunderstorms
are expected throughout portions of the Central Plains,
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and the Northeast. As the front
continues southward through the evening, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to begin in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley. Concurrently, a dryline has set up in the Southern Plains.
Thunderstorms today will have the potential to be strong to severe
beginning in the afternoon. Given strong deep-layer wind shear and
moderate instability, the most dominant risks will be large hail
and strong winds, though there remains a possibility of tornadoes.
As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for a majority of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Simultaneously, given the large extent of the
front, showers and thunderstorms will also develop across parts of
the Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Portions of
the Northeast, in particular, may also be at risk of severe
weather, and the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe weather, contingent on forecast instability remaining
unchanged.
On Wednesday, the focus shifts slightly farther south as the front
continues slowly toward the Gulf. At this point, the front will be
oriented from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the
front on Wednesday and through the evening hours. Similarly to
today, the strongest storms with a renewed severe potential will
occur throughout the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains,
with the core farther south than today. Hazards associated with
thunderstorms include large hail, strong gusty winds, and the
possibility of tornadoes. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for this region on Wednesday.
Additionally, thunderstorms will have the potential for heavy
rainfall as rich moisture flows in from the Gulf.
Localized/isolated instances of flash flooding are possible with
these storms, particularly in parts of the Lower Tennessee Valley
and the Southeast. As such, there is also a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall for these areas on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue further south on Thursday
as the front moves further into the Southeast. Uncertainty remains
on the exact positioning of the front on Thursday, but showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned upper-level cutoff low off the
coast of California, along with several surface troughs and a
weakening surface low-pressure system, will continue to bring
precipitation to parts of northern California and the Central
Great Basin today. Precipitation is expected to remain in the form
of rain and thunderstorms along the coast and low elevations, with
snow and a wintry mix in the high-elevation regions, specifically
the Sierra Nevada. An end to precipitation in this region is
expected by Wednesday as the system moves eastward toward the
Rockies.
Temperatures will remain significantly below average across the
northern and eastern portions of the country following the cold
front's passage. Highs in parts of the Central Rockies may
struggle to leave the 40s on Tuesday. High-elevation areas,
especially those being impacted by the winter storm, could dip as
low as 30 degrees below average, with temperatures hovering in the
30s. Conversely, while the Pacific Northwest will finally begin to
see a slow moderation in heat, unseasonably warm temperatures in
the 80s remain possible through the middle of the week.
Blanco-Alcala
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
Return To Bulletin List