Message:22322 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 13 May 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13140_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|W3ND|N3FUD|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260514/1528Z 31184@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260513/1500Z 17054@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260513/1441Z 28525@W3ND.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260513/1443Z 8277@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260513/1443Z 67139@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260513/1441Z 1969@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260513/1231Z 13140@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with minor C-class flares from
Regions 4432 (N14W90, Eko/beta-gamma) - that is rotating off the West
limb, 4433 (S16W60, Hrx/alpha) and 4436 (N18E20, Dai/beta). Region 4436
was responsible for the largest flare of the period: a C2.3 peaked at
13/0640 UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the past 24 hours:
Region 4437 (N15W75, Axx/alpha) and 4438 (N19W23, Bxo/beta), resulting
in a total of 5 numbered regions on the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 15 May. A
slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares still exists through the
end of the 13 May UTC-day due to West-limb presence of Region 4432.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 15 May. There is a slight chance for a S1 proton event
until the end of the 13 May UTC-day, ath-south Bz component oscillated between -6/6 nT
most of the day, reaching as north as 13 nT at the end of the period.
Phi angle was predominantly positive until about 13/1100 UTC, when
became negative.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue slightly disturbed
through 14 May, as the glancing influence from the 10
May CME wanes and a positive polarity CH HSS remains geoeffective. On 15
May, a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to
arrive near Earth, likely resulting in more disturbed solar wind
condition.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions on 13-14
May, due to the glancing influences of the 10 May CME event and/or
effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. A G2 (Moderate) storming
conditions are likely on 15 May due to the anticipated arrival of a
negative polarity CH HSS near Earth.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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