Message:22195 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 11 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <12996_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260511/0756Z 31094@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260511/0749Z 16953@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260511/0729Z 1868@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260511/0032Z 12996@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 110031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M5.7/2b flare at
10/1339 UTC, accompanied by Type-II (est. 650-1,736 km/s) and
Tenflare (550 sfu) radio emissions, from Region 4436 (N19E55, Dao/beta).
The associated partial halo CME, first visible at 10/1348 UTC off the
east in LASCO C2 imagery, is being analyzed for a potential
Earth-directed component, however, the bulk of ejecta appears to be
directed well east of the Sun-Earth line.
Region 4432 (N14W56, Ekc/beta-gamma) increased in areal extent and
magnetic complexity, and produced nearly all of the C-class flare
activity observed this period. The remaining numbered regions were
relatively stabhe period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced on 11 and 13 May
due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Background conditions
are expected to prevail on 12 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The influences followed by the return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic
field strength reached 6 nT, while the Bz component remained near
neutral. Solar wind speeds underwent a decline from near 460 km/s to
near 380 km/s by the end of tmoderate
levels on 11-13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11-13 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS
geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
11 and 13 May due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly
quiet conditions are likely to prevail on 12 May.
he period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced on 11 and 13 May
due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Background conditions
are expected to prevail on 12 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The ------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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