Message:21283 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 23 Apr 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
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FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with the largest flare of the
reporting period being a C3.7/sf at 22/1714 UTC from Region 4420
(N16E38, Dai/beta-gamma), which produced all of the periods flaring
activity due to its continual flux emergence and growth in its trailing
and intermediary areas. Region 4419 (N15W50, Eao/beta) showed minor
decay in its trailing spots . Regions 4421 (S10E58, Dso/beta) and 4422
(N09W44, Cao/beta) were largely stable.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected (75%) to be at low levels, with a slight
chance (10%) for isolated M-class activity, on 23-25 Apr, primarily due
to the flare potential from Region 4420 and limb activity.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a maximum reading of 4,920 pfu at 22/1605 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 23-25 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels on 22-24 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) variable
between +/- 5 nT. The wind speed had a very gradual downward trend,
beginning the reporting period with an average of 525 km/s and ending
with an average range of 450-460 km/s. While phi was predominantly
negative (towards the Sun), it frequently fluctuated between the
positive and negative sectors.
.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 23-25 Apr as the
negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective
position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the
anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 23-25 Apr, with isolated
active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS
effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24
Apr.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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