Message:21065 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 19 Apr 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <11449_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260419/0228Z 30381@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260419/0227Z 15933@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260419/0210Z 941@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260419/0032Z 11449@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 190031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4416 (N22W91, Hax/alpha)
produced the largest event of the period, a C1.6 flare observed at
18/0704 UTC, as it rotated around the western limb. Region 4419 (N13E01,
Eho/beta-gamma) displayed slight decay and consolidation in its trailing
spots, with the leader spots separating yet decaying as well. Region
4415 (S18W61, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged and was unremarkable.
From around 18/0730-0823 UTC, an approximately 30 degree long eruptive
filament was observed in GONG H-alpha and GOES-19 SUVI imagery lifting
off the solar disk. The associated CME off the SE limb was modelled with
the resulting output a non Earth impact.
No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 19-21 Apr, primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 4419.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decayed to
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase back to
moderate to high levels on 19-21 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels on 18-20 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became enhanced at around 17/2300 UTC, as the
anticipated CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Total field
increased to a peak of 17 nT, while the Bz component was mostly
negative, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -14 nT. Solar wind
speeds varied between approximately 370-400 km/s before gradually
increasing to a maximum velocity of ~600 km/s. Phi rotated into a
negative orientation just after 17/2300 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 18 Apr as
negative polarity CH HSS influence persists. Solar wind speeds ranging
from 600-700 km/s are likely based on recurrent values. Enhanced
conditions are expected to continue through 21 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) levels before increasing to G2
(Moderate) levels after 18/0825 UTC.
.Forecast...
Active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 19 Apr as
negative polarity CH HSS geomagnetic conditions persist. This will be
followed by unsettled to active conditions on 20-21 Apr, as HSS effects
linger.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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