Message:20915 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 16 Apr 26 00:46:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <11242_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260416/0703Z 30288@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260416/0702Z 15780@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260416/0700Z 6178@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260416/0657Z 65697@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260416/0632Z 814@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260416/0046Z 11242@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only B-class flaring from Regions 4416
(N20W50, Dso/beta) and 4419 (N13E43, Eki/beta-gamma). Moderate growth
occurred in Region 4419 along with consolidation of its leading spots.
Slight decay was observed in Region 4416.
Other activity included two CMEs on the NE and SE quadrants. The first
was associated with a long-duration B7.9 flare that started at 15/0730
UTC from Region 4419. A likely associated CME was observed off the NE
limb at 15/0748 UTC. The second was an approximate 35 degree filament
eruption, centered near S30E20, at 15/0940 UTC. An associated CME was
observed off the SE limb at 15/1036 UTC. Initial modelling indicated no
Earth-directed component. A partial halo CME was observed with the bulk
off the NW limb beginning at 15/1148 UTC. That CME was determined to be
backsided.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flare on 16-18 Apr primarily due to the flare potential
of Region 4419.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak of 3,248 pfu observed at 15/1820 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
16-17 Apr. A brief drop to moderate levels is expected on 18 Apr with
the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 16-18 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed
ranging from 324-381 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz
component was between +4/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by mid to late on
17 Apr with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region followed by
negative polarity CH HSS activity. Solar wind speed ranging from 600-700
km/s are likely based on recurrent values. Enhanced conditions are
expected to persist through 18 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 16 Apr. By
mid to late on 17 Apr, CH HSS activity is expected to cause unsettled to
active periods with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming likely.
Unsettled to G2 (Moderate) levels are expected to continue through 18
Apr as HSS effects persist.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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