Message:20520 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 09 Apr 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10793_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX12 KWNP 090031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels, with the largest flare of the
past 24-hours being a C8.9 at 08/1543 UTC from Region 4414 (N15W62,
Dro/beta), which was accompanied by Type-III radio bursts. Most of
the C-class activity came from either this region or Region 4409
(N01W71, Esi/beta-delta), which has developed a delta spot in its
intermediary area. All remaining spots were either stable or in slight
decay, with Region 4406 (N07, L=183) rotating over the West limb by
the end of the reporting period.
Coronal activity was observed in CCOR-1, LASCO and STEREO available
imagery during the period. Of the four eruptions, one was far-sided, one
was too narrow plus too far north of the ecliptic to have any
Earth-directed component, and two had the potential for Earth-directed
components. These eruptions where the eruptions seen off the eastern
limb in LASCO C2 starting at 07/2336 UTC and at 08/0536 UTC. The first
was associated with a C2.4 flare from Region 4414 (07/2320 UTC), while
there was no clear source for the second. Modeling indicates these
eruptions will pass behind Earths orbit and no impact is anticipated.
Eruptions potentially associated with the C8.9 are currently being
analyzed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 09-11 Apr, with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for
X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares, driven primarily by the flare
potential of Regions 4409 and 4414.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak
flux of 7,322 pfu at 08/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels and exhibiting slight contamination from the
high electron flux levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 09 Apr, with a drop to moderate on 10-11 Apr. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the high range of nominal conditions.
Wind speeds averaged 400 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged around
5 nT while the North-South (Bz) component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi
angle was oriented predominantly towards the Sun (negative).
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal conditions on 09
Apr, before becoming disturbed on 10 Apr and elevated on 11 Apr, due to
the anticipated arrival of a CIR and positive polarity coronal hole high
speed stream.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels with
isolated unsettled periods on 09 Apr. G1 (Minor) storming conditions
are anticipated on 10-11 Apr due to the arrival of the aforementioned
CIR.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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