Message:20337 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 05 Apr 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <10530_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260405/1533Z 48575@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260405/1533Z 65167@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
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R:260405/1231Z 10530@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 051231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 05-Apr 07 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 05-Apr 07 2026
Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07
00-03UT 3.67 2.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 0.67
15-18UT 1.67 1.67 0.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2026
Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07
S1 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 05-07 Apr.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 04 2026 2304 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2026
Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr 07
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for X-class R3 (Strong) events, over 05-07 Apr, driven
primarily by the flare potential of Region 4409.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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