Message:19949 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 01 Apr 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10230_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Low level C-class flares
were produced by Regions 4405 (S27E12, Esi/beta-gamma) and 4409 (N02E31,
Dro/beta). The largest flare was a C1.2 at 01/0651 UTC from Region 4409.
Slight growth was observed in Regions 4409 and 4404 (N15W00, Csi/beta).
The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.
Other activity included two filament eruptions. The first was an
approximate 5 degree filament eruption, centered near N20W12, occurring
at 01/0202 UTC. The ejecta appeared narrow and directed NNW in SUVI 304
imagery. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 01/0312 UTC
in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Initial analysis suggested no Earth-directed
component.
Another larger filament eruption was observed lifting off around 01/0310
UTC in the SW quadrant. The filament appeared to be around 50 degrees
centered near S32W55. Analysis of the CME will be conducted as imagery
becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flaring, with slight chance for X-class flares through
03 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4405.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak flux of 1,380 pfu at 31/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels during
the period.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be reach high levels
on 01-02 Apr and return to moderate to normal levels on 03 Apr. There
is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 03 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels until a IP shock was
observed at the ACE spacecraft at 01/1130 UTC indicating a much later
than expected arrival of the 30 Mar CME. Solar wind speed increased from
approximately 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. Total field increase to 14 nT
while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly
positive.
.Forecast...
Likely weaker CME influence is expected to continue through the rest of
the UTC day on 01 Apr. Further enhancements in solar wind conditions are
anticipated around midday on 02 Apr as a negative polarity CH HSS is
expected to become geoeffective. HSS activity is expected to persist
into 03 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active periods
for the rest of the UTC day on 01 Apr with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
storming possible as CME effects persist. Active to G1 (Minor) storming
is likely on 02 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist through 03 Apr.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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