Message:19897 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 31 Mar 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10153_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 311231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with Regions 4402 (N19W37, Cao/beta),
4403 (N16W06, Hax/alpha), and 4407 (N17E24, Axx/alpha) all contributing
to low level C-class activity. The largest flare was a C2.1 at 30/2047
UTC from Region 4402. Region 4405 (S27E25, Eai/beta-gamma) did not
produce any major flares since the X1.4 at 30/0319 UTC. Although the
region maintained a weak beta-gamma magnetic signature, a possible
sigmoidal feature could be seen in SUVI 094 imagery suggestive of
further moderate flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach Minor-Moderate (R1-R2) levels, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) through 02 Apr, due to the
complexity and evolution of the active regions currently on the solar
disk, particularly Region 4405.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak flux of 1,350 pfu at 30/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels during the period.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 31 Mar, with high levels likely on 01-02 Apr. There
is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed event
levels (S1-Minor) on 31 Mar as a result of the X1.4 flare at 30/0319
UTC. A slight chance remains for 01-02 Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed
averaging around 440 km/s. Total field decreased from 8 nT to near 5 nT
while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was in a positive
sector.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind disturbances are likely by mid to late on 31 Mar
through 01 Apr due to the arrival of the 30 Mar CME. Conditions are
likely to give way to CH HSS activity by mid to late on 02 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are likely, with a chance for
isolated G3 (Strong) storm levels on 31 Mar due to CME effects from the
30 Mar X1.4 major flare event. Active to G1 (Minor) levels are then
expected to continue into 01 Apr as CME effects wane. CME effects will
likely give way to CH HSS activity on 02 Apr causing active to G1
(Minor) conditions by mid to late in the UTC day.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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