Message:19777 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 29 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <10003_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3MEL|N3FUD|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260329/0626z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:10003_N4SD
R:260329/0618Z 47890@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260329/0618Z 14454@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260329/0618Z 4619@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260329/0617Z 64621@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260329/0609Z 56182@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260329/0032Z 10003@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate (R1/minor) levels due to a long duration
M1.3 flare that peaked at 28/0416 UTC from Region 4405 (S26E55,
Ehi/beta-gamma). Associated with this flare was a Type II radio sweep
observed at 28/0736 UTC with a shock speed of 868 km/s. Region 4401
(N25W15, Ekc/beta-gamma) maintained a mixed polarity configuration while
undergoing slight consolidation in its trailing spots, but was
relatively quiet. Region 4407 (N17E56, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this
period as it was split from AR 4404, but was otherwise unremarkable.
Additionally, a new spot was noted near N09E80, but remained unnumbered
due to viewing conditions and lack of activity.
LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the SE limb, first
visible at 28/0336 UTC. This CME was associated with the M1.3 flare.
Model analysis of this CME determined no Earth-directed component. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a high chance (50%) for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through 31 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1,600 pfu at 28/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 29 Mar before returning to normal to moderate levels
on 30-31 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly nominal regime until
approximately 28/2020 UTC when a weak enhancement in the IMF began.
Total field increased to 7 nT and the Bz component underwent a southward
deflection reaching -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were primarily under 400
km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector, but became
variable post enhancement.
.Forecast...
Enhancements from recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influences are
anticipated to begin by late 29 Mar and persist through 30 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 29 Mar. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming is likely on 30 Mar due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS
effects. Unsettled to active conditions are then expected to persist
into 31 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List