Message:19677 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 27 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9874_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to moderate levels during the reporting period.
The largest event was an M3.9/1N flare at 26/0623 UTC from Region 4403
(N15E54, Hsx/alpha). This event was associated with a Type II radio
sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 607 km/s.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot groups on the visible disk.
Region 4397 (N15W39, Bxo/beta) briefly decayed to plage before
reappearing as a bipolar group. Region 4398 (S17W40, Dro/beta) exhibited
a decay in penumbral extent, now retaining only rudimentary penumbra.
Region 4399 (S17E15, Hax/alpha) showed flux emergence and transitory
trailing pores, while Region 4401 (N25E11, Ekc/beta) underwent
consolidation of its intermediary spots. The remaining numbered regions
were relatively stable. At least two additional active regions are
beginning to rotate into view from the eastern limb at approximately N11
and S24; however, acute foreshortening precludes any firm
characterization of their magnetic complexity or spatial extent during
this period.
Two notable eruptions were analyzed during the period. The M3.9 flare
was associated with an eruption first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
at 26/0648 UTC and STEREO/COR2 at 26/0708 UTC. This CME exhibited a
faint, complex structure and is not expected to have any Earth-directed
components. Additionally, a wide, faint, and slow-to-evolve CME was
observed to the north/northwest in LASCO C2 starting at approximately
25/1800 UTC. While the source of this event is not definitively clear,
it may be associated with a slow-dimming region centered near N15W05
that evolved alongside a nearby coronal hole. This CME is anticipated to
have minor impacts at Earth as it interacts with a weak corotating
interaction region (CIR) expected to arrive on 29. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 29 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak 11,381 pfu at 26/1435 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 27 Mar before returning to moderate levels 28-29
Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters for the majority of the period reflected the
continued waning of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream
(-CH HSS). Solar wind speeds ranged between 410-520 km/s. The total
magnetic field (Bt) remained around 4 nT, with the Bz component showing
only minor and brief southward deflections.
A minor enhancement was observed starting near 26/1700 UTC,
characterized by a slight increase in total field to near 6 nT and a
slight recovery in wind speed to a peak of about 520 km/s. This
enhancement was accompanied by variability in the phi angle that had
been predominantly in the negative (towards) orientation for much of the
period.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue its gradual return
toward a nominal, slow-speed regime through 28 Mar. By late on 29 Mar, a
transition is anticipated as a corotating interaction region (CIR)
precedes the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream
(+CH HSS) with anticipated enhancements in speed and magnetic field
strength.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at primarily unsettled
levels on 27 Mar as residual HSS influences subside. Mostly quiet
conditions are forecast for 28 Mar. On 29 Mar, activity is expected to
increase to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods,
due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR and subsequent +CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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