Message:19647 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 26 Mar 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9827_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K7EK|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260326/1424z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:9827_N4SD
R:260326/1423Z 44644@K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260326/1423Z 49862@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260326/1422Z 55669@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260326/1422Z 79174@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260326/1421Z 56076@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260326/1231Z 9827@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with a M3.9 flare at 26/0623 UTC
from Region 4403 (N16E54, Hsx/alpha). While 4403 was the suspected
source of several flares observed beyond the limb prior to its rotation
onto the
disk, a new spot group is just beginning to rotate on at roughly N14 and
may have been the culprit. The new region, and another rotating on at
S24, are awaiting better imagery before numbering.
The remaining disk regions exhibited varying degrees of decay and
evolution. Region 4397 (N15, L=300) has fully decayed to plage and
Region 4402 (N17E19, Cao/beta) may lose its leader spots within the next
reporting period. Region 4399 (S17E16, Cao/beta) continues to fluctuate
between a unipolar and bipolar state due to short-lived trailing spots.
Region 4401 (N25E11, Ekc/beta) exhibited persistent flux emergence and
an expansion of penumbral area in its intermediary spots, though it has
yet to produce any flares of note.
An eruption associated with the M3.9 became visible in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery at approximately 26/0648 UTC and in STEREO COR2 at 06/0708 UTC,
showing a rather faint and complex structure. Modeling that there may be
potential for this CME to interact with the CIR anticipated to arrive on
29-30 Mar.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 28 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak 10,300 pfu at 26/1115 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux persisted at nominal background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 28 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Wind speed
decreased from approximately 550 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field, Bt, also gradually decreased from 9 nT at the beginning
of the reporting period to maintaining a 4 nT average after roughly
25/2100 UTC. Bz has been primarily oriented northward and any southward
deflections are short-lived and less than 5 nT. The phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards the Sun).
.Forecast...
Additional solar wind enhancements are anticipated 26 Mar following the
potential arrival of another component of the 22 Mar CME. Following this
passage, a gradual return to a nominal, slow-speed regime is forecast
throughout 28 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels
with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods possible on 26 Mar. As these
influences subside, conditions are forecast to drop to unsettled levels
on 27 Mar, with a return to mostly quiet levels by 28 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List