Message:19542 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 25 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <9749_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K7EK|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260325/0310z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:9749_N4SD
R:260325/0310Z 44558@K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260325/0310Z 49780@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260325/0309Z 55578@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260325/0307Z 79120@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260325/0307Z 64424@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260325/0303Z 56022@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260325/0032Z 9749@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels during the reporting period. Aside from
a single notable event, flaring remained below C-class thresholds. The
largest flare of the period was a C7.2 at 24/1754 UTC from beyond the
east limb. There are currently seven numbered sunspot groups on the
visible disk, with the majority of these regions remaining stable or
exhibiting signs of slight decay. Changes were notable in the disks
most complex regions: Region 4401 (N25E38, Eai/beta-gamma) has rotated
further into view and, alongside significant flux emergence, has
revealed a gamma configuration. The trailing spots of Region 4400
(S14W52, Dao/beta) faded throughout the period and simplification around
the leading spot led to loss of its delta configuration.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 27 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak 11,906 pfu at 24/1605 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux persisted at nominal background levels with observed
minor enhancements likely being the result of high-energy electron
contamination in the instrument.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 27 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued waning of a negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Solar wind speed
remained enhanced but trended downward throughout the period, decreasing
from a peak near 650 km/s to approximately 550 km/s. The total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged 4-5 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was
predominantly southward and reached a maximum deflection of -5 nT. The
phi angle was primarily in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist through 26
Mar as -CH HSS conditions continue to wane. By late on 26 Mar,
additional enhancements are possible as a CME, which departed the Sun on
22 Mar, is forecast to pass in close proximity to Earth. A slow recovery
toward nominal levels is anticipated on 27 Mar.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under waning -CH HSS
influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active levels possible on 25 Mar as negative polarity CH
HSS influences continue to gradually diminish. The potential glancing
impacts from the 22 Mar CME are expected to increase conditions back to
unsettled to active levels late on 26 Mar. Activity levels are expected
to stabilize at quiet to unsettled levels on 27 Mar as transient and
coronal hole influences subside.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List