Message:18764 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 13 Mar 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <8964_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260313/1326z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:8964_N4SD
R:260313/1326Z 46711@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260313/1325Z 63756@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260313/1324Z 55472@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260313/0032Z 8964@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Mar 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 13-Mar 15 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 13-Mar 15 2026
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
00-03UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 4.00
03-06UT 1.33 4.00 3.33
06-09UT 1.33 4.00 2.67
09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.33 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 4.33 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 4.33 3.67 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 13-14 Mar due
to influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2026
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 13-Mar 15 2026
Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 13-15 Mar.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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