Message:19435 In: NEWS.WW
From: LU9DCEDate: Sun, 22 Mar 26 09:15:00 Z
Newsgroups: NEWS.WW
Subject: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-MAR
Message-ID: <9797_LU9DCE>
Path: GB7RJJ|GB7YEW|LU9DCE
R:260322/0916Z 10318@GB7RJJ.#79.GBR.EURO LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260322/0915Z 15879@GB7YEW.#79.GBR.EURO LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260322/0915Z 9797@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN MAR 22 08:44:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN MAR 22 08:44:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN MAR 22 08:44:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN MAR 22 08:44:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC MAR 22, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, AND A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.
.. OVERVIEW ...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY TODAY AS FAST
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES MOVING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
.. OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ...
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT INTO THE REGION,
ORIGINATING WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND WELL-MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL US. THE KEY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE HOW AGGRESSIVELY MOISTURE RETURNS. STRONG
ANTECEDENT HEATING AND MIXING UPSTREAM MAY LIMIT MOISTENING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, BUT RELATIVELY COOL
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE MODEST WARM ADVECTION
AND A WEAKENING CAP FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH THE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT.
LARGE HAIL -- POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN GOLF BALLS -- WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN DEVELOP. WITH TIME, THE SURGING COLD FRONT
SHOULD UNDERCUT THUNDERSTORMS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNDERCUT, WITH THE TORNADO THREAT TIED CLOSELY TO HOW AGGRESSIVELY
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE POST-FRONTAL AND
ELEVATED IN NATURE, BUT GIVEN STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SEVERE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
LATER STORMS.
.MARSH.. 03/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 22, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...
..SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
..CAROLINAS/GEORGIA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. THESE CELLS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
.BROYLES.. 03/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 22, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
..SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NO SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST.
..DISCUSSION...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA. AS SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE NEAR
THE FRONT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.BROYLES.. 03/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC MAR 22, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
..DISCUSSION...
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 TO THURSDAY/DAY 5...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AS
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRMASS, A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THREAT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
..FRIDAY/DAY 6 AND SUNDAY/DAY 8...
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE FRONT
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
ON SUNDAY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A DRY AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S., SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IS LOW.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
..SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
..TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...
THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX TODAY. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS TO BE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SHARP
CHANGE TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S F ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT, AREAS OF 70S F
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS OF 20-25 MPH (PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE FORECAST IN THE PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. STRONG GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR. GIVEN ERC VALUES AT OR
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ONGOING DROUGHT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN AREAS
WHERE RH WILL BE IN THE 25-30% RANGE. THAT SAID, LOCATIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE QUITE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON (10-20% CAN
BE EXPECTED).
..SOUTHWEST...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT IS
NOT CLEAR. 10-15% RH WILL BE OBSERVED MORE BROADLY. RELATIVELY WEAK
WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 10-15 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER SPEEDS WITHIN THE
TERRAIN. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
..CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. RH WILL DROP TO 20-30% BY THE
AFTERNOON. FUEL RECEPTIVENESS GENERALLY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT GIVEN RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK. EVEN SO, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS.
.WENDT.. 03/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..SYNOPSIS...
ON MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. DRY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR IN THE PLAINS.
..PIEDMONT...
DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25-30%. WINDS OF
AROUND 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS COULD
OCCUR. SOME PRECIPITATION OCCURRED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CAROLINA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED
ELEVATED CONDITIONS IS HIGHER FARTHER NORTH WHERE FUELS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY DRIER.
..SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS...
A MORE NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY KEEP WINDS WEAK IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, SOME ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. RH THE
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 10-20% RANGE. RH IN THE PLAINS
IS LESS CERTAIN, BUT POCKETS AROUND 20% COULD BE OBSERVED. WITHOUT
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, ONLY LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
.WENDT.. 03/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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