Message 27981 in WX.USA
From: KF5JRV
Date: Sat, 15 Aug 26 08:17:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.USA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - Aug 15
Message-ID: <29768_KF5JRV>
Path: N2NOV|K5DAT|W0ARP|KF5JRV
R:260815/0823z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:29768_KF5JRV
R:260815/0821Z 49343@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260815/0820Z 44982@W0ARP.#NCO.CO.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260815/0817Z 29768@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 17 2026
..Severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding threats
continue along a corridor from the Midwest to the central
Appalachians and across the central High Plains...
..Dangerous heat continues from the Central/Southern Plains to
the Southeast through the weekend, spreading into the Carolinas by
Monday...
A locked-in weather pattern will continue to bring various weather
hazards across the country through the weekend and into early next
week. An upper-level high-pressure system will remain entrenched
across the southern tier states east of the Rockies, sustaining
the ongoing heatwave across this region. In fact, the heat is
forecast to spread further east into the Carolinas by Monday as a
warm front begins to lift across the region in response to a
developing low-pressure wave passing through the Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, a pronounced mid/upper-level trough over the western
U.S. will slowly progress eastward, as embedded shortwave energy
ejects from the Great Basin and Rockies into the central Plains
and Midwest against the strong upper high. This pattern will
continue to sustain repeated rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding along a corridor
from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and across the
central High Plains to the north of a meandering front. With
saturated soil from previous rainfall and ongoing flash flooding,
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is maintained
for parts of the Midwest to the Ohio Valley today and tonight. As
a low pressure develops and moves eastward across the northern
Plains today, drier and cooler air will spread into the northern
Plains and the upper Midwest on Saturday, shifting the severe
storms and flash flooding threats slightly southward on Sunday for
the Ohio Valley with a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall in West
Virginia. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall remains in the
forecast for the central/southern High Plains on Sunday. Some
strong to severe thunderstorms could slide could across the
Appalachians to reach the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday.
Across the West, the southwesterly flow will bring monsoonal
moisture into portions of the Interior West, the Four Corners, and
central High Plains. With the combination of instability and
sufficient moisture, showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the area through the weekend, especially during the late-day to
overnight hours. Some storms may produce periods of heavy
rainfall, which can lead to flash flooding in vulnerable terrain,
especially burn scars, slot canyons, and urbanized areas. The
coverage of the showers and storms should gradually decrease from
west to east over the next couple of days.
The upper high/ridge will continue to bring dangerous heat across
the southern tier states east of the Rockies through the weekend.
Afternoon highs are expected to reach the upper 90s to mid-100s,
while overnight lows will remain relatively warm, providing only
minor relief. With the combination of high humidity, heat indices
may reach up to 115 degrees, resulting in widespread Major to
Extreme HeatRisk levels. Several consecutive days of high heat
stress can lead to heat-related illness.
Kong/Oudit
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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