Message 26967 in WX.USA
From: KF5JRV
Date: Fri, 31 Jul 26 09:26:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.USA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - Jul 31
Message-ID: <29092_KF5JRV>
Path: N2NOV|KC2NJV|N5MDT|W0ARP|KF5JRV
R:260731/0933z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:29092_KF5JRV
R:260731/0931Z 10211@KC2NJV.#NASS.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260731/0931Z 2767@N5MDT.#STX.TX.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260731/0931Z 44043@W0ARP.#NCO.CO.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260731/0926Z 29092@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 31 2026 - 12Z Sun Aug 02 2026
..Risk for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across the
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
..Flash flooding and severe thunderstorm risk across portions of
the Four Corners...
..Daily rounds of heavy downpours bring localized flash flooding
risks to the Southeast...
..Dangerous heat builds across the Southwest on Friday,
Intermountain West/northern High Plains on Saturday...
Unsettled weather continues across the central U.S. as an upper
level shortwave trough traverses southern Canada into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. At the surface, the cold over Northern
Plains will drop southward on Friday, while a low-pressure system
will continue to deepen and slowly move eastward. The frontal
boundary associated with the system will extend across the
Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains, while the warm front
will extend across parts of the Southeast. The slow moving
boundary will interact with warm moisture and strong instability,
leading to heavy rainfall that is capable of producing high
rainfall rates and heavy downpours. Therefore, a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall is in place over portions of the
Upper Midwest into mid-Mississippi Valley and portions of the Ohio
Valley, while a broad Marginal Risk highlights much of the Upper
Great Lakes and Southeast for Friday. Additionally, a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms is in place for portions of
the Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. On Saturday, as the system
moves eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and merges with the
cold front over the Upper Great Lakes, chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue. With increasing instability and sufficient
moisture, the risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
will shift eastward into the lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee
Valley, and portions of the Southeast. These storms may also
produce damaging wind gusts, isolated marginal hail, and possible
tornadoes.
Over the southwest, southeasterly flow continues to bring
monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners, which will produce
afternoon to evening thunderstorms. Slow storm motion and
increasing instability will bring the potential for isolated flash
flooding and severe thunderstorms, with the chance for damaging
winds and hail, through Saturday.
Otherwise, the upper-level ridge over Southwestern U.S. will
continue to bring dangerous heat across the Southwest on Friday,
and will gradually lift into the northern High
Plains/Intermountain West by Saturday. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach 110-120 degrees for parts of the Southwest,
while the areas farther north will reach 90s to 100s.
Unfortunately, overnight lows will provide little relief as
temperatures are expected to remain warm. Therefore, much of
western U.S. will experience widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
conditions, which will bring concern for heat-related illness,
especially for those without adequate cooling or hydration.
Oudit
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.co
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