Message 26571 in WX.USA
From: KF5JRV
Date: Sat, 25 Jul 26 08:47:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.USA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - Jul 25
Message-ID: <28824_KF5JRV>
Path: N2NOV|N3MEL|NC8Q|W9GM|WG0A|N5MDT|KR8X|KF5JRV
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 27 2026
..Chances for showers and thunderstorms across the northern
Rockies/Plains into Upper Midwest this weekend...
..Risk of flash flooding expected across Southeast and southern
Mid-Atlantic near a stalled frontal boundary...
..Active monsoonal moisture fuels thunderstorms over the
Southwest and into portions of the Intermountain West and
Rockies...
..Hazardous heat continues over parts of southern U.S. and builds
over the Great Basin and Northern Plains through the weekend...
The broad upper-level ridge will continue to dominate
central/southern U.S., while troughing continues over eastern U.S.
The embedded shortwave disturbances across northern U.S. will
drive a frontal boundary eastwards from the Northern
Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday.
Low-level moisture pooling along the boundary, combined with
strong daytime heating and instability, will support isolated
thunderstorm development across portions of Northern Rockies into
the Upper Midwest, with a chance for large hail and damaging gusty
winds. The severe weather threat increases on Sunday, as several
shortwave disturbances shift eastward and mid-level flow
increases, reinforcing organized thunderstorms from the Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Upper Midwest. These storm may also
produce heavy rainfall, damaging wind gust, and isolated instances
of flash flooding where antecedent soils are saturated. As the
front moves into the eastward by late Sunday into Monday, showers
and thunderstorms may develop along the boundary across portions
of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Further south, a secondary quasi-stationary front will drape
across the Tennessee Valley into the south Mid-Atlantic and the
Southeast on Saturday. Persistent southerly flow ahead of the
approaching front will maintain a warm and humid air mass. With
abundant moisture, slow storm motions, and high rainfall rates, a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall have been placed for
scattered instances of flash flooding over portions of the eastern
Carolinas and the Southeast, while a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
includes portions of the Tennessee Valley. Flash flooding concerns
continue for portions of Florida on Sunday as a shortwave trough
and the stationary front continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms.
Across the southwest, the active monsoonal pattern will continue
through the weekend. The deep tropical moisture circulating around
the southern periphery of the ridge and instability will support
scattered thunderstorms across the Four Corners into the central
Plains. These storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, especially over burn scars and slot canyons where rapid
runoff and flash flooding may occur. Additionally, Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Arizona with a
severe thunderstorm threat, with a potential for strong to severe
winds for Saturday.
Dangerous heat continues across much of central U.S. into portions
of southern U.S. this weekend with widespread Major HeatRisk, with
isolated Extreme HeatRisk areas across the Rockies/Plains into the
Upper Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast. Highs are
expected to reach upper 90s to lower 100s across much of central
U.S. and portions of southern U.S., with isolated areas in the
Desert Southwest seeing 115-120 degrees. High temperatures
combined with high humidity can raise heat indices to 105 to 115
degrees, which will pose health risk concerns to anyone without
adequate cooling or hydration.
Oudit
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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