Message 26620 in WX.NA
From: KF5JRV
Date: Sun, 26 Jul 26 08:58:00 Z
Newsgroups: WX.NA
Subject: NWS USA WX Forecast - Jul 26
Message-ID: <28889_KF5JRV>
Path: N2MH4|VE3KPG|VE3TOK|VE3CGR|VE7ASS|VA7RBP|KF5JRV
R:260726/0902Z 34383@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260726/0901Z 27298@VE3KPG.#ECON.ON.CAN.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260726/0901Z 38583@VE3TOK.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260726/0900Z 88545@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260726/0900Z 54677@VE7ASS.#VAN.BC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260726/0900Z 42707@VA7RBP.#SCBC.BC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260726/0858Z 28889@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 28 2026
..Hazardous heat continues over parts of central and southern
U.S. into next week...
..Risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the
Northeast...
..Risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across
Southeast near a stalled frontal boundary...
..Active monsoonal moisture fuels thunderstorms over the
Southwest and into portions of the central Plains...
A persistent upper-level ridge centered across central and
southern U.S. will continue to bring hazardous heat over the next
few days. Afternoon highs are expected to reach upper 90s to lower
100s for central and southern U.S., while isolated areas in the
Desert Southwest may see up to 115-120 degrees. With hot
temperatures and high humidity, heat indices may exceed 105-115
degrees. This will result in widespread Major HeatRisk with
isolated Extreme HeatRisk across the Plains, Mississippi
Valley/Midwest, parts of the Rockies, and portions of southern
U.S. through Monday. With the repeated days of dangerous to
extreme heat and warm overnight lows, anyone without adequate
cooling or hydration may experience health related health
concerns.
Across eastern U.S. a progressive northern-stream trough traverses
southern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Embedded
shortwave impulses rounding the northern periphery of the ridge
will interact with frontal boundaries that will promote organized
convection along the front. The quasi-stationary front extending
from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will slowly
progress southeastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, and Northeast through Sunday. The combination of strong
mid-level flow, instability, and low-level moisture pooling along
the boundary will help support severe thunderstorm development and
excessive rainfall/flash flooding risk across parts of the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes into Ohio Valley. These storms may also
produce large hail and damaging winds across the the Mid-Missouri
Valley into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. On
Monday, as the frontal boundary slowly pushes further east into
the Northeast, the surface low will strengthen, reinforcing the
severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat across the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Northeast.
Over into the Southwest, the deep monsoonal moisture along the
southern flank of the ridge will continue to bring unsettled
weather. Daytime heating, instability, and sufficient moisture
will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Monday.
Heavy rainfall rates may lead to localized flash flooding across
the Four Corners and central Plains, especially over burn scars
and slot canyons where rapid runoff and flash flooding may occur.
WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall across the Four Corners region through Monday.
Across portions of the Southeast, the stationary front and surface
trough will support rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With
southerly flow maintaining a warm moist environment along the
boundary, slow storm motions, and instability, severe
thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding may be possible on
Sunday. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall and flash
flooding have been placed for the eastern portions of the
Southeast for Sunday.
Oudit
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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