Message 29979 in STORM.WW
From: HP2DFA
Date: Sun, 13 Sep 26 23:21:00 Z
Newsgroups: STORM.WW
Subject: 7 DAY TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP13
Message-ID: <1954_HP2DFA>
Path: N2MH4|GB7BED|EI2GYB|PY2BIL|HP2DFA
R:260914/0052Z 37159@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260914/0052Z 17605@GB7BED.#21.GBR.EU LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/0051Z 58994@EI2GYB.DGL.IRL.EURO LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/0051Z 54217@PY2BIL.SP.BRA.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260913/2321Z 1954@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
For the week of **September 13–20, 2026**, official guidance from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and regional meteorological agencies indicates an active September pattern across the Central American region.
---
### Key Tropical Systems & Basins
* **Eastern Pacific Basin:**
* **Active Cyclones:** Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are active well offshore in the East Pacific, moving west-northwest away from the Central American coastline.
* **Nearshore Conditions:** Easterly wind pulses across the Papagayo region (Costa Rica/Nicaragua) and moderate night-to-morning northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will create localized rough seas.
* **Caribbean Sea & Atlantic Basin:**
* **Direct Cyclonic Threat:** No active tropical cyclones or high-probability genesis areas are currently targeting the SW Caribbean or Central American coastline.
---
### 7-Day Regional Impacts for Central America
Even without a direct tropical cyclone landfall, the interaction between easterly tropical waves and the **Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)** will maintain typical mid-September wet season conditions across the region:
| Sub-Region | Primary Weather Drivers | 7-Day Forecast & Hazards |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Pacific Slope** *(Guatemala to Panama)* | ITCZ moisture pull, afternoon convection | Heavy vespertino/nighttime thunderstorms; urban flash flooding risk. |
| **Central Mountain Spine** *(Cordillera)* | Orograpic lift, high soil moisture saturation | Moderate to heavy daily rain; high risk of **landslides and mudslides**. |
| **Caribbean Slope** *(Bocas, Colón, Mosquitia)* | Tropical waves, trade-wind convergence | Frequent morning showers, localized coastal thunderstorms. |
---
### Marine & Safety Summary
1. **Pacific Marine:** Coastal waters will experience moderate wave action with localized rough seas in wind-gap regions (Papagayo and Gulf of Panama) during periods of heavy convective gusts.
2. **Hydrological Hazards:** Due to pre-existing soil saturation, river basins across Western Panama (Chiriquí, Ngäbe-Buglé), Costa Rica (Pacific Slope), and Guatemala remain under high alert for sudden river swellings and landslips.
PMAIL: HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PAN.CEAM
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