Message 30450 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 22 Sep 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22871_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3HYM|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260922/0042z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22871_N4SD
R:260922/0039Z 18679@N3HYM.#FRDK.MD.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260922/0036Z 8498@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260922/0031Z 22871@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 220031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22-Sep 24 2026
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
00-03UT 1.00 1.67 4.33
03-06UT 1.00 2.00 5.33 (G1)
06-09UT 1.67 2.00 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 2.00 2.00 3.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 0.67 2.67 3.00
18-21UT 1.67 3.33 3.33
21-00UT 1.67 4.33 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 24 Sep
due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2026
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2026
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 24 Sep.
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More Info: N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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