Message 30449 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 22 Sep 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22870_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3HYM|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260922/0039z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22870_N4SD
R:260922/0037Z 18678@N3HYM.#FRDK.MD.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260922/0032Z 8497@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260922/0031Z 22870@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with weak, isolated C-class flare
activity. Regions 4534 (N11W21, Dri/beta) and 4536 (N03E01,Cri/beta)
underwent evolution, developing penumbra and additional spots. Regions
4537 (N07W11, Bxo/beta) and 4538 (N11W09 Bxo/beta) emerged this period,
were subsequently numbered, but have remained relatively quiet. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with isolated to
occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance (10%) for
isolated M-class flare events, through 24 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 23 Sep with a chance for a return to high
levels by the close of 24 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 24 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like solar wind
environment. Total field ranged between 3-4 nT and the Bz component was
between +2/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds decreased from just above 350 km/s
to near 330 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly
negative.
.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22 Sep. A
disturbed wind environment is expected to begin with a solar sector
boundary crossing followed by positive polarity CH HSS influences by
late on 23 Sep, continuing through 24 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the reporting period.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet geomagnetic field conditions are expected to prevail on 22
Sep. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by late on 23 Sep as CH
HSS effects begin. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 24 Sep,
particularly in the early hours, as CH HSS effects continue and
strengthen.
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