Message 30414 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 21 Sep 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22814_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3HYM|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260921/1308z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22814_N4SD
R:260921/1307Z 18618@N3HYM.#FRDK.MD.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260921/1306Z 8465@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260921/1231Z 22814@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 211231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 21-Sep 23 2026 is 2.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 21-Sep 23 2026
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.00 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 0.67 0.67
15-18UT 1.33 0.67 0.67
18-21UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2026
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2026
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.
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More Info: N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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