Message 30206 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 18 Sep 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22616_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260918/0048Z 37343@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260918/0048Z 1757@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260918/0042Z 74865@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260918/0033Z 8262@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260918/0031Z 22616@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 180031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels with occasional B-class
flaring from an unnumbered plage region in the east, which included a
long-duration B7.9 flare at 16/2345 UTC. Region 4528 (S11W83, Hsx/alpha)
is stable and the only numbered sunspot region on the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance
for isolated C-class flares through 20 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 20 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to
remain at background levels through 20 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced under negative polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (-CH HSS) influence. Total field strength (Bt) varied
between 3-7 nT throughout the period. The North-South (Bz) component was
variable while remaining at benign levels. Solar wind speeds have slowly
decreased from speeds near 550 km/s to ~450 km/s. The phi angle remained
predominantly negative (towards the Sun).
.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to persist through 18
Sep. Mostly nominal conditions are expected for 19-20 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 18-20 Sep with a nominal
solar wind.
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