Message 30119 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22559_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|NS2B|WG3K|WW6Q|W9GM|WA2UET|K5DAT|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260916/1403Z 37282@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260916/1402z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:22559_N4SD
R:260916/1402Z 1644@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1400Z 40565@WG3K.#SMD.MD.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1400Z 59978@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1400Z 9982@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1400Z 50792@WA2UET.#ENY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.23
R:260916/1358Z 53343@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1352Z 26959@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1232Z 22559@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2026
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 2.00
06-09UT 2.33 3.67 2.00
09-12UT 1.67 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
15-18UT 3.33 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.00
Rationale: Active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are
expected on 16 and 17 Sep due to combined negative polarity CH HSS and
CME influences. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18 Sep as
enhancements wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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