Message 30118 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22558_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|K5DAT|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260916/1403Z 37281@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260916/1402z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:22558_N4SD
R:260916/1402Z 53342@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1348Z 26958@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1231Z 22558@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 161231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels with occasional B-class
flaring from unnumbered plage regions. There are two numbered sunspot
regions on the visible disk that are both stable unipolar groups.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance
for isolated C-class flares through 18 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, with a peak
flux of 427 pfu observed at 15/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 18 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to
remain at background levels through 18 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced, likely from transient CME features
followed by weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH
HSS) onset. Total field strength (Bt) reached a peak of 16-17 nT near
15/1700 UTC before gradually declining to 3-5 nT late in the period. The
Bz component was mostly southward between 15/1830 UTC and 16/0000 UTC
and reached a maximum southward deflection of -13 nT. Two brief
intervals of enhanced solar wind speed, reaching near 800 km/s, were
observed near 15/1145 UTC and 15/1830 UTC. Speeds subsequently subsided
to between 500 and 550 km/s late in the period. The phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards the Sun).
.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to persist through 18
Sep. Additional enhancements are likely on 16 and 17 Sep due to flanking
influences from CMEs that departed the Sun on 13 and 14 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 16 and 17 Sep due to combined CH and CME influences. Unsettled
to active conditions are likely on 18 Sep as enhancements wane.
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