Message 30094 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 26 00:30:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22545_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260916/0054Z 37261@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260916/0054Z 20676@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/0036Z 8167@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260916/0030Z 22545@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 160031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2026
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.67 2.00
09-12UT 2.67 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
15-18UT 3.33 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 16-17 Sep due to
the anticipated effect of -CH HSS and CMEs glancing blow.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2026
Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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