Message 30093 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 26 00:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22544_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260916/0054Z 37260@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260916/0054Z 20674@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/0032Z 8166@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260916/0029Z 22544@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels with occasional B-class
flaring. There are two numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk,
both are stable unipolar groups.
A CME off the NW limb was observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at
15/1648 UTC. This ejecta is believed to be from the far side of the Sun
as there was no indication through GOES SUVI imagery that an eruption
happened on the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance
for isolated C-class flares through 18 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
with a peak flux of 427 pfu observed at 15/1710 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux has decreased to background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels through 18 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
anticipated to remain at background levels through 18 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced possibly by negative CH HSS
influence. The solar wind had two distinct and relatively short lived
increases to +600 and +700 km/s, respectively, but decreased back to
near 400 km/s each time. Total field reached a maximum of 17 nT just
after 15/1700 UTC while Bz was mostly northward until 15/1852 UTC when a
deflection south to -13 nT was observed. Phi was mostly negative.
.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to persist through 18
Sep. Additional enhancements are likely on 16 and 17 Sep due to flanking
influences from CMEs that departed the Sun on 13 and 14 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 16 and 17 Sep due to the combined CH and CME influences.
Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 18 Sep as enhancements
wane.
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