Message 30080 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 26 12:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22526_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K5DAT|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260915/1608z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22526_N4SD
R:260915/1605Z 53247@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260915/1605Z 59932@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260915/1605Z 9914@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260915/1604Z 86899@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260915/1545Z 8158@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260915/1229Z 22526@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 151231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels with occasional B-class
flaring. There are four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk.
All but Region 4531 (S08W02, Bxo/beta), which was numbered this period,
are stable unipolar groups.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a
decreasing chance for isolated C-class flares and a slight chance for
M-class flares through 17 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to moderate levels,
with a peak flux of 4,650 pfu observed at 14/1315 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux has declined but remains slightly elevated following
a peak of 4 pfu observed at 14/1520 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels through 17 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
anticipated to undergo a slow decline toward background levels through
17 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced throughout the period,
consistent with transient passage and the likely onset of a negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Total field strength
(Bt) gradually rose to a peak of 14 nT after 14/1800 UTC before reaching
as high as 16 nT late in the period. The North-South (Bz) component was
variable in the first half of the period and reached a maximum southward
deflection of -9 nT before turning and remaining northward after 14/2230
UTC. Solar wind speeds held relatively slow between 350 and 380 km/s
before climbing sharply after 15/1114 UTC to over 600 km/s. This wind
speed increase was a notable sharp rise in temperature. The phi angle
shifted into a predominantly negative (towards the Sun) early in the
period.
.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to persist through 17
Sep. Additional enhancements are likely on 16 and 17 Sep due to flanking
influences from CMEs that departed the Sun on 13 and 14 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to
transient influences.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 15 and 16 Sep, with G1 conditions remaining possible on 17 Sep
due to combined CH and CME effects.
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