Message 30046 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 15 Sep 26 00:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22508_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K5DAT|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260915/0050z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22508_N4SD
R:260915/0039Z 53153@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260915/0038Z 26853@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260915/0035Z 8124@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260915/0029Z 22508@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 150031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 15-Sep 17 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 15-Sep 17 2026
Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17
00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 3.00
06-09UT 3.33 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 3.00 3.67 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15-16 Sep due to
the CH HSS effects combined with CMEs glancing blow.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2026
Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17
S1 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms on 15-17 Sep period.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 15-Sep 17 2026
Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 15-17 Sep period.
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