Message 30025 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 26 12:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22489_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260914/1403z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22489_N4SD
R:260914/1353Z 26797@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1229Z 22489@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 141231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity briefly reached low levels during the period. From
13/1841-1951 UTC, an 8 degree-long, N-S oriented filament, centered near
S04W08, lifted off the disk. The eruption occurred to the west of Region
4528 (S11W38, Hsx/alpha), and was associated with a long-duration C1.4
flare, the only C-class flare of the period, at 13/1945 UTC. An
associated CME first became visible in LASCO C2 at approximately 13/1948
UTC and in CCOR2 at approximately 13/2030 UTC. Modeling suggests the
potential for a minor glancing blow early on 17 Sep.
Occasional B-class flares were observed from Regions 4521 (N09, L=266),
4529 (N12W39, Cao/beta) and 4530 (N19W70, Cao/beta). The largest of
these flares was a B9.2 at 13/1801 UTC from Region 4529. All four of the
numbered regions experienced decay throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for
isolated C-class flares through 16 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,827 pfu observed at 13/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels until approximately 14/0430 UTC
when it began to rise, eventually reaching a peak near 3.5 pfu at
14/1025 UTC. The slight bump is likely associated with the long-duration
C1.4 flare at 13/1945 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
14 Sep and decline to low to moderate levels on 15 Sep before returning
to high levels on 16 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to see the current enhancement weaken throughout the remainder
of 14 Sep, returning to near background levels on 15-16 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained near-background levels, with isolated
weak perturbations noted around 14/0230 UTC and 14/1015 UTC. These minor
disturbances are possibly a reflection of the filament that departed the
Sun on 09 Sep combined with the anticipated SSBC. As expected, little
magnetic reaction resulted from these events. Total field strength
generally varied between 2-8 nT, eventually seeing a peak over 11 nT,
and the Bz component saw isolated deviations as far south as -7 nT.
Solar wind speed averaged around 425 km/s the first half of the period
before decreasing to as low as 290 km/s the second half of the period.
The phi angle was on the cusp of a positive/negative orientation for
most of the period, spending several hours in each sector.
.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to continue early on 14
Sep and last through 16 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period possible for the remainder of 14 Sep as -CH HSS
influence builds in. Unsettled to active levels are then expected, with
a chance for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming by 15 Sep. The
likelihood of G1 storming increases on 16 Sep as a subsequent -CH HSS
moves into a geoeffective position.
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