Message 30024 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 26 12:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22488_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K5DAT|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260914/1359z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22488_N4SD
R:260914/1356Z 53080@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1353Z 26796@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1229Z 22488@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 14-Sep 16 2026
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
00-03UT 1.00 3.33 3.67
03-06UT 2.33 3.67 3.33
06-09UT 1.33 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 2.00 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 3.33 2.00 3.33
18-21UT 3.67 3.00 3.67
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
Rationale: The likelihood of G1 storming increases on 16 Sep as a
subsequent -CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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