Message 29981 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 26 00:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22474_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260914/0053Z 37161@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260914/0052Z 20521@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/0043Z 8072@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260914/0029Z 22474@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 14-Sep 16 2026
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
00-03UT 3.33 3.33 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 3.67 3.33
06-09UT 3.00 3.33 3.00
09-12UT 3.00 3.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 3.33
18-21UT 3.67 3.00 3.67
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods are expected
on 16 Sep due to the anticipated effects of two CH HSSs and likely solar
sector boundary crossings due to their differing polarities.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected
through 16 Sep.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 14-Sep 16 2026
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 16 Sep.
------
Received by NOAA Satellite Downlink at N4SD
More Info: N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
← Return to Bulletin List