Message 29890 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 26 12:30:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22388_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260912/1319Z 37091@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260912/1318Z 20416@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260912/1317Z 74529@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260912/1316Z 7999@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260912/1230Z 22388@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 12-Sep 14 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 12-Sep 14 2026
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
00-03UT 1.33 2.33 3.33
03-06UT 2.33 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 3.00
09-12UT 2.33 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 3.00
15-18UT 1.00 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.67 3.67
21-00UT 2.33 3.33 3.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2026
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2026
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance of isolated R1 (Minor) radio
blackouts through 14 Sep.
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More Info: N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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