Message 29889 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 26 12:30:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22387_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260912/1319Z 37089@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260912/1318Z 20415@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260912/1315Z 7998@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260912/1230Z 22387@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Regions 4521 (N09W87, Hsx/alpha) and 4524
(N12W37, Hsx/alpha) produced a few B-level enhancements as they moved
closer to the western limb. All seven of the numbered regions were
either stable or reflected slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with C-class
flares likely and a slight chance of isolated low-level M-class flares
(R1-Minor) through 14 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 7,008 pfu observed at 11/1355 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12 Sep and decline to low to moderate on 13-14 Sep. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions remained near-background levels. Total field
strength varied between 1-7 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/-
6 nT, and solar wind speed averaged close to 425 km/s through the
period. The phi angle oscillated between sectors until just after the
turn of the UTC day when it remained in a mostly positive orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions could experience minor disturbances on 12 Sep, due
mainly to a small, positive polarity CH HSS that is expected to remain
geo-effective through the day. Negative CH HSS effects are anticipated
to begin late on 13 Sep and last through 14 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with
isolated active periods possible, on 12-13 Sep as +CH HSS influence is
expected to continue. Late on 13 Sep, an anticipated SSBC ahead of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream is anticipated to begin
influencing the IMF, bringing unsettled to active levels on 14 Sep.
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