Message 29855 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 26 00:30:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22372_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K5DAT|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260912/0049z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22372_N4SD
R:260912/0039Z 52803@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260912/0037Z 26631@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260912/0033Z 7971@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260912/0030Z 22372@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 120031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 12-Sep 14 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 12-Sep 14 2026
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 3.33
03-06UT 2.67 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 2.67 2.33 3.00
09-12UT 2.33 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 3.00
15-18UT 1.00 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.67 3.67
21-00UT 2.33 3.33 3.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected
through 14 Sep, though a solar sector boundary crossing and CH HSS on
13-14 Sep are expected to create unsettled to active conditions.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2026
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected
through 14 Sep.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 12-Sep 14 2026
Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 14 Sep.
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More Info: N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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