Message 29712 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 26 00:30:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22276_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low as only a few C-class flares occurred. Eight
designated sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk, none
of particular note. Only Regions 4525 (N11E04, Cro/beta), and 4530
(N19W07, Dro/beta) were bipolar; all others were unipolar. There was no
significant development in any region, but some minor instability
existed in Regions 4521 (N09W53, Hsx/alpha), 4524 (N12W13, Hsx/alpha),
and 4528 (S11E25, Hsx/alpha) - the source of minor C-class flares.
Other activity included an approximate 5 degree filament eruption near
N14W03 associated with the C3.4 flare from Region 4524. A possibly
associated slow moving CME was observed in ST A COR 2 imagery beginning
at 09/1638 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is anticipated to remain low, with a slight chance of
low-level M-class flares (R1; Minor) 10-12 Sep. Region 4521 rotates
beyond the limb by 12 Sep decreasing the chance for R1 events. There is
no evidence in NSO GONG helioseismology of any looming active regions of
note just beyond the east limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 3,370 pfu at 09/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
10-12 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were indicative of a disturbance in the solar wind
that may be related to anticipated CME influences. Total IMF strength
increased from 5 nT to a peak of 10 nT by 09/0430 UTC, before it
unsteadily decreased to 8 nT or less. The Bz component experienced minor
variations, but no sustained periods of pronounced southward direction.
Solar wind speed changes were minimal, with speeds ranging from 385 km/s
to just over 470 km/s. The phi angle was positive until it became more
variable after 09/0730 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are anticipated to experience some minor
disturbances due mainly to a small, positive positive polarity CH HSS
anticipated to be geoeffective by 11 Sep.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 12
Sep with active periods possible on 11 Sep due to CH HSS onset.
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