Message 29711 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 10 Sep 26 00:29:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22275_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|K5DAT|W0ARP|KN6VV|WD0HDR|KE0GB|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260910/0052Z 52446@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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R:260910/0042Z 9842@KN6VV.#NCO.CO.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260910/0042Z 9481@WD0HDR.#NCO.CO.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
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FXXX10 KWNP 100031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 10-Sep 12 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 10-Sep 12 2026
Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12
00-03UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
03-06UT 2.67 2.33 2.67
06-09UT 2.67 2.00 2.67
09-12UT 2.33 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.67 1.00
18-21UT 2.00 2.67 2.00
21-00UT 2.33 3.00 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 10-Sep 12 2026
Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 10-Sep 12 2026
Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12
R1-R2 10% 10% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at very low to low levels with
a decreasing likelihood for C- and M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
through 12 Sep as Region 4421 rotates beyond the West limb and other
regions on the visible disk continue to decay.
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