Message 29680 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 09 Sep 26 12:30:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <22256_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260909/1328Z 36886@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260909/1327Z 1084@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1320Z 74262@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260909/1319Z 7764@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1317Z 26434@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1230Z 22256@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 091231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with isolated C-class flare activity.
The largest flare of the period was a C3.4 at 08/2339 UTC from otherwise
stable Region 4528 (S11E31, Hsx/alpha). Region 4530 (N19W01, Dao/beta)
developed asymmetric penumbra on both its leading and trailing poles
while undergoing consolidation in its intermediate area. New flux
emergence in the intermediate area was observed late in the period.
Region 4521 (N09W33, Hsx/alpha) began to show signs of possible flux
emergence and pore development as it produced a C2.4 flare at 08/1224
UTC, a C2.8 flare at 08/1743 UTC, and a C2.6 flare at 08/2224 UTC. The
first of these two events likely resulted in the rather faint CME first
seen to the west in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 08/1334 UTC with
preliminary modelling showing a miss NW off the Sun-Earth line.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels due to isolated to
occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 11 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,780 pfu observed at 08/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may briefly return to normal to
moderate levels on 09 Sep during CME arrivals. Moderate to high levels
are then expected to persist through 11 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through
11 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until near 09/0425 UTC,
when a weak shock from a nearby passing CME is believed to cause slight
enhancements. Total field strength increased from ~5 nT to 11 nT. Wind
speeds and density both exhibited slight increases, but returned to
nominal levels. Phi was variable early before settling mostly positive.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS
influences are expected to continue through 10 Sep. Further enhancements
are likely on 09 Sep with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the
Sun on 05 and 06 Sep. On 11 Sep, a separate additional positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream is likely to arrive, bringing a mildly
disturbed solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels under positive
polarity CH HSS effects during the 0600-0900 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC
synoptic periods.
.Forecast...
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Sep due to
ongoing positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects
combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun over the
course of 05-06 Sep. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail
on 10 Sep and continue into 11 Sep as another positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
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