Message 29419 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 05 Sep 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <22015_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|K5DAT|WW6Q|WG3K|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260905/0112z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:22015_N4SD
R:260905/0107Z 51939@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 05-Sep 07 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 05-Sep 07 2026
Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.33
03-06UT 1.33 1.67 2.00
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 2.00
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 3.67
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.33 3.33
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected
through 07 Sep.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 05-Sep 07 2026
Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected
through 07 Sep.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 04 2026 0753 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 05-Sep 07 2026
Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackout events through 07 Sep.
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