Message 29381 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 04 Sep 26 03:06:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21863_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260904/0858Z 36654@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260904/0858Z 19731@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260904/0851Z 7508@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260904/0848Z 26118@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260904/0306Z 21863@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 040306
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 04 0305 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 04-Sep 06 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 04-Sep 06 2026
Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06
00-03UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.67 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.00 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 2.00
21-00UT 1.33 1.67 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 04-Sep 06 2026
Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06
S1 or greater 5% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 04-Sep 06 2026
Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity will likely reach low levels due to occasional
C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), through 06 Sep.
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