Message 28960 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 29 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <21549_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4513 (N04W43,
Dai/beta) continued a trend of slight decay and produced a C1.1/Sf
flare at 28/0422 UTC; the largest of the period. During the period, the
magnetic structure of the region simplified to a beta. Region 4518
(N08E19, Cro/beta) produced some B-class activity, but has shown some
overall decay over the past 24 hours. The remaining regions were stable.
New Region 4520 (S13E34, Bxo/beta) was numbered and showed some rapid
growth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for
M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity on 28-30 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decayed to normal to moderate
levels and reached a peak of 900 pfu a 28/1400 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 29-30 Aug, and increase to high levels on 31 Aug.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 31 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels during the first half of
the period, then became enhanced during the latter half of the period
following the likely onset of +CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field
strength reached a peak of 14 nT, while the Bz component reached as far
south as -13 nT. After about 28/1430 UTC, solar wind speeds increased
from about 300 km/s to just above 400 km/s. The phi angle transitioned
from a negative to a positive angle at around 28/0630 UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 29 Aug due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of CMEs
that departed the Sun on 25-26 Aug. Mildly enhanced conditions may
persist into early 30 Aug as CH HSS and CME influences subside. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected to return by 31 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels through 28/1200 UTC, and
increased to unsettled to active levels for the latter half of the
period.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely on
29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, coupled with the
anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug. Active
conditions are likely on 30 Aug as CH HSS and CME influences subside.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 31 Aug.
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